Winners
1. Philadelphia Phillies
- Read earlier review here…..
2. Chicago White Sox
- In the deadline’s most stunning move, the White Sox acquired Jake Peavy for the second time this season. After the San Diego ace exercised his no-trade clause earlier this season, he waived it Friday and officially parted ways with the Padres. We love this move for the White Sox future, even if it means Peavy leaving the cavernous Petco Park and the inferior National League. The $48 million owed to Peavy over the next three seasons won’t be awful even if he pitches closer to his career 3.84 ERA away from San Diego. The departed Aaron Poreda is a pretty large trade chip to cash in, but his value is unlikely to be on Peavy’s level over the next few seasons. The other departed arm, Clayton Richard, has been an enigmatic piece of Chicago’s rotation. On the verge of having his rotation spot taken from him, the 25 year-old went out and threw consecutive eight-inning gems. Of course, that only lowered his ERA to 4.65 which shows the inconsistency manager Ozzie Guillen had been suffering through at the back of his rotation. All told, Chicago GM made the biggest gamble at the deadline but may have come out with an three years of a recent Cy Young winner in exchange for a package that falls well short of that required to snag other recently moved aces.
3. Florida Marlins
- One week ago we wouldn’t have given the Marlins a shot at the NL wild card, but the addition of Nick Johnson changes everything. This trade barely made a ripple in the news, but swapping Emilio Bonifacio’s .609 OPS with Johnson’s .821, including a robust .414 OBP, might have the biggest direct impact of any trade made this week. The .315 OBP the Marlins have gotten from the two spots in front of Hanley Ramirez has crippled the offense. It’s hard to quantify just how much a 100 point bump in OBP will mean, but in a wild card race that figures to be tight throughout September a single win improvement might be the difference.
4. Cleveland Indians
- Tribe fans probably aren’t feeling like they’re big winners right now as they’ve traded away their fan favorite catcher and the reigning Cy Young winner, the latter for the second consecutive season. It may hurt right now, but the truth of the matter is the team wasn’t going anywhere as constructed. Back to back disappointing seasons signaled that change was necessary. While Toronto continued to demand far too much in return for their ace, Cleveland general manager Mark Shapiro capitalized and walked away with a haul that would look even more impressive if not measured against the packages rumored to be part of potential Roy Halladay deals. They got a solid combination of MLB-ready players and high-ceiling prospects. Justin Masterson, headliner of the package Boston swapped for Martinez, is a potential front-line starter who will be in their rotation by the end of the season. Carlos Carrasco, acquired in the Lee deal, was a top prospect as recently as two years ago and while he may not have that cache anymore he still profiles as a middle of the rotation arm who is close to major league ready. Shortstop Jason Donald and catcher Lou Marson should also be on the major league roster relatively quickly, while flame throwing youngsters Nick Hadagone and Jason Knapp both have the potential to be dominant starters for the Indians’ next playoff team.
Losers
1. Toronto Blue Jays
- If all of the rumors were just for show and they never intended to trade Roy Halladay, forgive us for this ranking. If not, and they failed to move their ace because no team would unload their entire prospect well for Doc, then Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi shouldn’t keep his job for long. Any chance the Jays had for maximizing the return on Halladay is now gone, and unless the team believes they can contend in 2010 their failure to capitalize on the recent demand will be an epic mistake. Ricciradi insisted that any team wanting his ace would have to part with at least three of their top prospects, something no reasonable team would do. He needs to learn a lesson from the Minnesota Twins trading of Johan Santana two seasons ago. They repeatedly turned down solid offers from the Yankees and Red Sox, among others, and ended up with Carlos Gomez and a pile of mediocrity. As it stands now, the team will be lucky to get a return even half as impressive as the collection of talent the Indians pulled from the Phillies system. If they wait until next year’s deadline, assuming he continues to pitch at the same level and avoids injury, they’ll have lost all leverage and be stuck accepting the best package offered to them or settle for two draft picks when he signs with the Red Sox the next winter. Three weeks ago it was unthinkable that Halladay would still be a Blue Jay, but he is…and the team’s future is bleaker for it.
2. Cincinnati Reds
- We’re not sure the Reds know where they stand at this point in the season. A trade like the one they made for Scott Rolen suggests that they have a shot at making a run this year. Unfortunately, the standings show them a full nine games out of the wild card. Sending Edwin Encarnacion away in the deal isn’t a huge loss as he continued to show an inability to play third base at even a marginal level. The issue is that they unloaded two young pitching prospects in a current climate that places an insane premium on their value. All they got in return was an injury prone third baseman who is unlikely to maintain his resurgent 2009 level next season. Almost the entire increase in his 2009 production can be traced back to a .337 BABIP that sits nearly 30 points above his career average and closer to 50 points higher than the last two seasons. In less complex terms, Rolen has been lucky and his highly unlikely to repeat his bounce back season in 2010. If the Blue Jays are able to repeat their incredible track record of converting relievers to starters on Josh Roenicke and Zach Stewart, this deal may turn out to be historically disastrous for Cinci GM Walt Jocketty.
3. Chicago White Sox
- This is not a typo; the White Sox are on both the Winners and Losers lists. Where we like what the Peavy move does for the team over the next three seasons, we’re equally pessimistic about what it does for them this season. A big reason why the trade was such a surprise is that Peavy has been out of action for two months with a torn ankle ligament, and teams don’t usually make blockbuster deals for injured pitchers. Peavy has yet to begin rehabbing the ankle and is currently targeting a September return. Even if he’s able to reach that optimistic goal and comes back as the Jake Peavy we remember, we’re not sure five or six Peavy starts will be that much more valuable than two months of the combination of Clayton Richard and Aaron Poreda. If there is any setback in the Peavy’s comeback the absence of those two arms will be a major reason why the Sox fall short of the postseason.
4. Brian Sabean
- We’re hesitant to put the San Francisco Giants franchise on this list because the additions of Freddy Sanchez and Ryan Garko do increase their chances of playing postseason baseball. But in what seems like a yearly activity, Giants GM Brian Sabean has again shown an inability to properly gauge a player’s value. He demonstrated it this year by trading top pitching prospect Tim Alderson for the Pirates’ Sanchez. Unlike a lot of baseball people, we’re not crazy about Alderson, or rather about his chances of becoming a top of the rotation starter. We also think the Sanchez acquisition immediately improves both the Giants defense and the top of their lineup. Given that, it may seem odd that we’d classify this move as a poor one, but in the context of the trade season its borderline unforgiveable. Whether Alderson ever becomes the number 1 or 2 starter many foresee is irrelevant to my point. The fact of the matter is that he carried a lot more value than as a piece to simply swap for a salary dump, which is essentially what Sanchez was for the Pirates. If the Giants were content to dip into their wealth of pitching prospects (they traded Scott Barnes earlier for Ryan Garko) it seems like they could have gotten a much better return than a season-plus of Freddy Sanchez and Ryan Garko. Once again a Brian Sabean deal leaves observers scratching their heads and opposing general managers praying for his contract to be extended.
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