March 17th- We've traveled from East to West, ending with a stop at the American League West. While the news wasn't always welcomed in some places, it was greeted with open arms in others. Thank you for reading TPFSports "6 Divisions, 6 Days" 2009 MLB preview. And keep coming back for our weekly AL and NL reviews, every Monday and Tuesday.
Los Angeles Angels
Key Additions: OF Bobby Abreu and LHP Brian Fuentes.
Key Losses: 1B Mark Teixeria, OF Garret Anderson, RHP Jon Garland, RHP Francisco Rodriguez.
The Angels once again reigned over the AL West by winning the division in dominating fashion, but fizzled against the Red Sox in the ALDS. It was a disappointing season in that respect, because the Angels appeared to have the best team in the AL after the trading deadline when they acquired Mark Teixeira, but couldn’t get it done when it mattered most. After getting eliminated, everyone knew we’d probably see a different team, since the one currently constructed wasn’t getting any younger or better. Key players like Teixeira and super closer Francisco Rodriguez left for bigger pay checks and replacing them were vets Bobby Abreu and lefty Brian Fuentes. This team is built on pitching and that’s what will carry them to another AL West crown this year.
The Angels rely on pitching, defense, and a NL style of ball that will be needed this year, as their power numbers will suffer with Teixeira gone and Guerrero probably on his decline. The top four starters John Lackey, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana and Jered Weaver are the best in the division. Their pitching staff came in third in the AL last season with a 4.01 ERA, and we’ll see more of the same as long as the rotation and primary firemen stay healthy. There is some concern early in camp about Santana’s health, but it could be a blessing down the road if the Angels start the year without him to conserve his bullets for September. Remember, he was great all year last year winning 16 games with a 3.49 ERA and 214 K’s in 219 IP, but caved in September going 2-2 with a 4.46 ERA that last month and it carried over to the post season. His preservation will be key, as is the expected recovery of Kelvim Escobar, who should be ready around June/July. If he can come in and pitch close to his 2007 form where he won 18 games, this team will be extremely tough to beat. The bullpen was reshuffled a bit with the departure of “K-Rod”, but the team found it fiscally responsible to commit a lesser value economically to a position that’s very volatile and somewhat overrated – the closer. Their choice was Free Agent signee Brian Fuentes (2 yrs/$17.5 Mill). Averaging 28 saves over the past four seasons, he’s a very underrated closer. He’s only pitched in the NL, so AL teams will have to adjust to him. In front of him will be the electric Jose Arredondo, Scott Shields, Darren Oliver and Justin Speier. That’s one of the best pens in the AL, which plays right into what Manager Mike Scioscia does best, which is manage the bullpen in the late innings. Expect them to come in or improve on their 3.50 bullpen ERA of 2008.
The offense will be very interesting to monitor, since none of the expected starters in the infield have ever hit double digit Home Runs in their careers. Kendry Morales, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar/Brandon Wood and Chone Figgins are not only young, but injury prone or haven’t yet shown they could hit Major League pitching consistently. That’s a major weakness going into the season, and if Morales or Aybar/Wood can’t produce, who does Scioscia turn to? The outfield looks solid as ever with the omnipresent Vladimir Guerrero heading that trio. Guerrero again had a great year numbers wise in 2008 hitting .303 27 HR’s and driving in 91 runs, but his Slugging numbers have been in serious decline since 2004 (.598-.565-.552-.547-.521) which shows his age and knee/back problems are zapping his power numbers, which is troubling for a team that will need serious offensive production this year from their superstar. The rest of the outfield is comprised of Tori Hunter and Bobby Abreu, who will fit in well with the Angels style of offense. He’s a good contact guy who has one of the more discerning eyes at the plate garnering a gaudy 4.1 pitches per AB in 2008 and is a great 2 out RBI player hitting .382 last year in that situation. His defense is still subpar, but his offensive contribution will offset those limitations.
Player to Watch: 1B Kendry Morales
Morales was looked upon as a premier hitting prospect since the Angels signed him out of Cuba in 2004. They gave him a record bonus of 3 Million dollars, and he hasn’t lived up to the expectations hurled at him since signing. He has performed great in the minor leagues, but in 377 AB’s in the Majors he’s managed to hit just .249/.302/.408 with just 12 Home Runs. He’s not a selective hitter and the holes in his swing have been exploited. He needs to make better adjustments, and maybe with the tutelage of Abreu, he can become more selective and learn to use the opposite field. Stat Guru Bill James projects him to hit .291 19 HR with 79 RBIs, so stay tuned Angels fans. Morales could be the vital part to this team’s success in 2009.
Prediction: First Place
The Angels will win their fifth division title in the past six years, due to their strong pitching staff, and cultured style of baseball that Manager Mike Scioscia has instilled in this team. Their power will be offset by their hit and run style that should fit in well with the likes of Abreu. Also, Juan Rivera and Howie Kendrick have come into camp healthy, and if they’re able to play a full season, they’ll be a force to be reckoned with in that order.
Oakland Athletics
Key Additions: OF Matt Holliday, 1B/DH Jason Giambi, SS Orlando Cabrera, IF Nomar Garciaparra.
Key Losses: OF Carlos Gonzalez, RHP Huston Street, LHP Greg Smith, LHP Lenny Dinardo.
The Athletics surprised some people when they challenged the Angels for the division crown for most of the year until injuries and hitting woes did them in. The result was a third place finish going 75-86. Manager Bob Geren will look to improve upon that record with a little more punch in the order provided by GM Bill Beane’s moves in the off season. It’s interesting to see where the direction of this team is headed. The moves to acquire vets is an indication that they’re trying to win now, but looking at their minor league system, you see that prime arms Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Michael Inoa and James Simmons are maybe 2-3 years away. These moves reek of the organization trying to win now to secure a stadium deal.
The Oakland Athletics were dead last in the AL in hitting (.242) and in runs scored with 646. Their staff fared a little better in the AL with a pitching staff ERA of 4.01, which came in fifth best in the league. They’ll try to carry that momentum into 2009, but their starting rotation will be severely weakened by the loss of ace Rich Harden. Justin Duchscherer will now be counted on as the team’s #1 pitcher, but unfortunately like Harden, he has a litany of injury problems himself. He’s currently dealing with a right elbow problem, which is threatening to send him to the DL to start the season. The 31 year old righty has never pitched a full year in the major leagues as a starter, and last season only lasted 141.2 innings before being shut down. Is that a true staff ace? Expect him to continue his off and on stints to the DL during the season until he’s shut down again for precautionary reasons. That won’t be good news for a staff that consists of Sean Gallagher, Dallas Braden, Dana Eveland and maybe rookie Gio Gonzalez. None of those guys have won more than 5 games in a season, and none are looked at as prime time starting pitchers (except for Gonzalez in two years) or even depth guys. This is probably the worst starting staff in the AL, but luckily they’ll pitch at McAfee Stadium with its exaggerated power alleys and foul territory. The offense will be much better than last year, but how much better? The acquisition of Matt Holliday was a surprising one by many since he’s slated to become a free agent after this season concludes. The former NL MVP will be commanding big bucks in the Free Agent market, but will the A’s keep him or trade him away at the trading deadline? So far it looks like they’ll try to sign him to a discounted rate, and if they can’t come to a compromise, they’ll take the draft picks instead. Holliday’s numbers outside the comfy confines of the thin aired Coors Field were obviously different than his home numbers, but how will those numbers translate playing 81 games in that awful hitters ballpark? Hitters hit an aggregate .686 OPS in that ballpark, and will Holliday want to stay there? Will management make a big deal of his expected .291 23 HR’s 96 RBI (Bill James) and try to sign him below market value? I feel this will be the team’s biggest story, since the rest of the guys they signed like Cabrera and Giambi are just in the descending part of their careers, and won’t add much to an already tepid offense. Besides Holliday what excites you? Daric Barton? Nothing. They’re just a team of base clogging slugs with aging stars and no exciting positional players.
Player To Watch: RHP Trevor Cahill
Cahill was the A’s second round pick in the ’06 draft and has shot up the system since being signed. Last year after being promoted to AA he posted a 6-1 2.19 ERA .190 BA stat line that raised eyebrows amongst baseball insiders. He has superb command of a 91-94 mph fastball, a low 80’s knuckle curve, and a slider/cutter that he uses to offset his fastball that has downward motion reminiscent of Brandon Webb. Hitters only took him out of the ballpark 5 times all year last year in 124.1 IP, which shows you that he works down in the zone and is a hard pitcher to center. If he continues to improve in AA/AAA, expect a call up, since the major league rotation is suspect at best as is.
Prediction: Fourth Place
They may be one of the worst teams in the American League. It doesn’t help that the Holliday situation will be looming over their heads all year long serving as a distraction.
Seattle Mariners
Key Additions: OF Endy Chavez, OF Franklin Gutierrez, OF Ken Griffey Jr., 1B Russell Branyan, IF Ronny Cedeno, RHP Chad Cordero, RHP Tyler Walker, RHP David Aardsma.
Key Losses: OF Jeremy Reed, OF Raul Ibanez, RHP J.J Putz.
The Mariners took a huge step back last year losing 101 games, which cost Manager John McLaren his job during the middle of the season. The reason for the team’s dismal season had a lot to do with the injuries of pitchers Erik Bedard and J.J Putz who were expected to carry a big part of the load in front and in back of the pitching staff. The team isn’t that bad on paper, and could surprise some people in the AL, especially if Brandon Morrow transitions well from the bullpen to the rotation.
A lot will be made of the Mariners trading five players for lefty Erik Bedard, but in the end, they’ll reap the benefits ten fold and it’ll begin this year. Last year Bedard started 15 games with several ailments and still had a respectable 3.67 ERA to go along with a 1.32 WHIP. Now healthy and going into his free agent year, Bedard could win 16-18 games pitching behind staff ace Felix Hernandez. Hernandez has been heralded as a phenom since he was 18 years old, and four years into his major league career he’s compiled a not so impressive 39-36 record. Obviously, a pitcher’s win-loss record isn’t indicative of how truly dominant he’s been because many factors go into determining a win or loss, but more was expected of him. This year may be the year where he puts it all together. For one, he’s showed he can last a full season throwing 200 innings, as he did last year, and secondly the Mariners are now allowing him to throw his devastating slider more than year’s before when they were babying him. This has allowed him to work on his curveball more at the major league level while his slider was kept in the closet. Now with free reign to use all three pitches to go along with an improving changeup, it’s lights out time. The rest of the staff has some nice veterans sprinkled in with Carlos Silva (looking impressive in the WBC) and innings eater Jarrod Washburn to go along with Morrow. It’s a little disconcerting that Morrow has come up with forearm soreness at the moment, but its considered minor and even though it may keep him sidelined during the start of the season, it wont be something to get worried about. The bullpen seems to be the biggest weakest of this team, since losing J.J Putz. Miguel Batista, Mark Lowe and Roy Corcoran are in line to take on closer duties, but all three of them are getting lit up in spring training, which is not a good sign for this team. They do have Chad Cordero in line rehabbing and currently throwing clean side sessions, but he’s not expected to join the team until late May. Can he regain his form that saw him save 37 games in 2007? If healthy, he will be a major addition for the Mariners. The Mariners offense was a little underrated last year, as they did come in last in OBP at .318 and scoring the second fewest Runs in the AL with just 671. But surprisingly they did have the most hits in the AL after the all-star break. The improvement of players like DH/C Jeff Clement and OF Franklin Gutierrez will make this team a pesky team to pitch to this year. The addition of OF Ken Griffey Jr. will not only help the young players, but will add more energy and spark to the lineup. Watch for Jose Lopez blow up this year and become the best hitting second baseman in the AL. Expect him to the starting in the AL all-star team this year. With the starting pitching this team is slated to have, just a little more run support and power from Russell Branyan and Adrian Beltre can make this team a dangerous one.
Player To Watch: RHP Josh Fields
After a lengthy holdout, the Mariners first round pick in the 2008 draft finally signed to the delight of many. The SEC career saves leader will probably start in AA and try to hone his mid 90’s fastball and devastating low 80’s curveball, that many believe will make him a bonafide closer in the big leagues. He has a slight build, but his medical reports came up clean and if he shows he can throw strikes consistently in the minors, expect the Mariners to call him up if their bullpen situation becomes a mess.
Prediction: Second place
The Mariners will surprise many this year with their hitting exploits and even though their bullpen situation looks incendiary, their starting pitching will be formidable enough to get them past the sixth inning with the lead intact. The outfield defense is much improved as well with Gutierrez and Endy Chavez expected to flank Ichiro Suzuki. That can only help the pitching staff in that spacious outfield in Safeco Field. Also, the return of Chad Cordero in late May will give this team a boost, and maybe Fields comes up and starts lighting up the guns and the fans desire to come out to the park and cheer this 2009 team on. Expect this to be the Felix and Bedard show. Get your popcorn ready!
Texas Rangers
Key Additions: SS Omar Vizquel, OF Andruw Jones.
Key Losses: C Gerald Laird, RHP Wes Littleton.
The Texas Rangers kept playing “sluggo” like they’ve had for a while now, and found themselves finishing in second place in 2008. They came in first in the AL in team batting average and runs scored, but finished last in team ERA and batting average against. They also came in last in team fielding committing a league worst 132 Errors. As you can see, this team was just playing recklessly all year long, but the fans sure got their money’s worth. It was disappointing to see that Rangers GM Jon Daniels didn’t attempt to upgrade the team’s pitching in the off season. Expect more of the same brand of baseball in 2009 and a lower expected finish.
This team’s pitching has been their Achilles heel for years, and with a 35 year old Kevin Millwood fronting the starting staff, it looks like it’ll be another banner year for the scoreboard operators at The Ballpark. Millwood has been a complete bust since signing a $60 Million contract in 2005. Last year in an injury riddled season he went 9-10 with an awful 5.07 ERA. Even worse, he gave up 220 hits in 168 innings pitched. If that wasn’t bad, then check out the guys lined up behind him: 32 yr old Vicente Padilla who had a staff “best” 4.74 ERA, Brandon McCarthy, Matt Harrison and Scott Feldman. Only McCarthy has a chance to make a serious impact in the rotation this year, as he’s been pitching well this spring and staying healthy, which has been his downfall since coming over from the White Sox. If he stays healthy, he’ll wind up being the team “Ace” by years end. The bullpen is pretty solid with Frank Francisco expected to be the closer. He thrived in that role after the All Star break attaining a 2.45 ERA and 0.74 WHIP 25.2 IP. Most importantly, he solidified a shaky closer role manned by C.J Wilson. While he may not have handled the move well, expect a bounce back season from Wilson in a role as a set up man where he is better suited. Vets like Eddie Guardado, Josh Rupe and Kason Gabbard should make the pen an average one, but hopefully Dustin Nippert gets a chance, as he’s a promising arm coming out of the pen. He showed some promise at the tail end of last season last year as a power arm strikeout guy, and if he pitches like he’s capable of, he will make the a good combo along with Wilson as the bridges to Francisco.
Offensively, what else is there to say? Is there a better young hitting team in the Major Leagues? We love the nucleus of this team with OF Josh Hamilton and Infielders Chris Davis, Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. They are stacked in every position in the Infield and with prized rookie SS Andrus expected to come in and learn from veteran Omar Vizquel. It will only help galvanize this team offensively and defensively for years to come. Expect Saltamacchia to be the starting catcher, as he’s looking to keep the momentum going from his torrid campaign in the tough Dominican Winter League where he hit a mind boggling .364/.506/.848 in 20 games. If he can put up even a fraction of those numbers at the major league level this season, the Rangers will be just an impossible team to pitch to. The positions around Josh Hamilton aren’t set yet, but expect Marlon Byrd and Nelson Cruz. Andruw Jones was brought in to get a look, but we doubt he makes the team out of the gate. The Rangers are too stacked, and it would be more cost effective to go with David Murphy as the fourth outfielder, not to mention that Murphy is probably a better player than Jones is. If everything goes as planned, this team could eclipse the 1000 runs mark easily. Have we mentioned that Hank Blalock is back from shoulder injury and looking to play fulltime at DH? Remember this is a guy who hit 25 Home Runs in 2005. It’s an exciting team and they’ll only get better.
Player To Watch: 1B Chris Davis
What an amazing year the young lefty had in 2008. Starting in AA Frisco, he moved on to AAA Oklahoma, and then ended the year as the starting first baseman for the Texas Rangers. It was a whirlwind of a season for the slugger, as was for the pitchers trying to get him out. In all those three stops he hit a combined 40 Home Runs and drove in 128 Runs. He wasn’t just a mauler either, as he hit a combined .309 in all those stops as well. He has prodigious power to all parts of the ballpark and it’s not impossible to see him hit 40 bombs this year in the majors. He hit one HR for every 17 AB’s last year in the bigs, and with his advanced approach at the plate, he should avoid huge slumps/exposals that have curtailed the careers of Russell Branyan, Mike Jacobs and Brad Fullmer.
Prediction: Third place
The Texas Rangers shouldn’t expect much this year with that awful starting rotation. You can’t win games 13-12 every day and expect to have a successful year. You need a good balance of hitting and pitching and the Rangers formula is still one sided. This team’s offense will keep them in a battle for second place with the Mariners, but we just don’t see how they’ll patch up the rotation. They don’t want to expose super pitching prospects Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland too early. With the Rangers minor league system ranked #1 overall by Baseball America, just wait one more year to really be a contender in this division. They’ll pass the Angels soon … very soon.
Tuesday's Preview: The National League East
Wednesday's Preview: The American League East
Thursday's Preview: The National League Central
Friday's Preview: The American League Central
Monday’s Preview: The National League West
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