May 4th- Looking at the first round, one may wonder if the Lakers peaked in the middle of the regular season. Did they show a lack of focus and killer instinct against the Utah Jazz that foreshadows another disappointing finish? Or were they just bored, waiting for a better, more worthy opponent?
What about the Rockets? Are they just happy to be out of the first round, or are they capable and hungry enough to seriously contend for a championship?
All of these questions will be answered over the next two weeks.
Why the Lakers Can Win:
The Laker frontcourt has advantages in size and power over many other frontcourts. That is not the case against the Rockets. Fortunately for the Laker bigs, they are too quick and athletic for Houston’s frontline. Pau Gasol should have no trouble scoring over Luis Scola or facing up Yao Ming. Lamar Odom played well against Utah, which means he’s due for a disappearing act. But Odom’s quicker than anyone who will be guarding him and he just might be able to have another solid series. Also, look for Andrew Bynum to gradually find his way to back to form. He will feel more comfortable than he did against Utah’s smaller, more mobile players. On defense, expect the Lakers to front Yao.
Much has been made of the verbal sparring between Kobe Bryant and Ron Artest during a March 11th Lakers victory in which Kobe scorched the Rockets for 37 points. If that weren’t enough, Artest recently stated that Brandon Roy (as opposed to Bryant) was the best player he had played against. Kobe must accept the challenge of playing against a team that features two premier wing defenders (Artest and Shane Battier) while not getting caught up in a one-on-one duel. One of the advantages the Lakers will enjoy is Artest’s consistently poor shot selection. Bryant cannot negate this advantage by allowing Artest to lure him into trying to prove a point. If Bryant is as focused on winning a championship as it seems from afar, this won’t be an issue.
The bottom line is that while the Rockets play very good defense, it probably won’t be enough. The Lakers have too many offensive weapons and too polished a system. The fact that the Rockets often have trouble scoring doesn’t help matters.
Why the Rockets Can Win:
If Andrew Bynum continues to play erratically and find himself on the bench, Yao Ming will have no trouble overpowering Pau Gasol. Aaron Brooks is much quicker than Derek Fisher (look for Phil Jackson to counter by having Shannon Brown guard Brooks for extended periods). Luis Scola is playing well and could outmuscle the Laker frontline.
Aside from some advantages in individual matchups, however, the Rockets greatest chance lies in their potential to wear the Lakers down. The Rockets must control the tempo and slow the pace of the game. They must be physical inside and out-rebound the Lakers. Houston has the luxury of being able to throw both Artest and Battier at Kobe Bryant, and hope that he wears down by the end of the game. This approach has some precedence, as Bryant seemed to fade a bit against Boston’s constant, physical defensive pressure during last year’s Finals. Houston Coach Rick Adelman himself has recognized the importance of such a strategy:
"You have to make him work for everything. You're not going to stop him, you're not going to shut him down, but you've got to make him work. That's the advantage we have, throw both guys (Artest and Battier) at him and maybe we can wear him down a little bit.”
There is one more reason the Lakers could succumb to fatigue: their bench, supposedly the deepest and most talented in the league, hasn’t contributed much lately. Shannon Brown has been a nice addition, but beyond him there’s Sasha Vujacic (who is shooting 20% from the field in the postseason), Luke Walton (who is injured again), and Jordan Farmar (who seems to have lost the trust of Phil Jackson and is struggling to get playing time). Jackson has been playing his starters heavy minutes. It is due to the bench’s overall ineptitude and in, particular, their inability to hold onto leads.
If the Rockets can slow the game down and make the Lakers work very hard for every basket, the Lakers could buckle. However, Houston must combine a consistent, disciplined, physical defense with some good offensive performances. Yao must score more than he did against Portland, and Ron Artest needs to continue taking the ball inside (as he did in Game 6 against the Blazers) rather than always settling for ill-advised jumpers.
Prediction: Lakers in 6
