April 17th- Are we witnessing the winter of Tim Duncan’s dominance in the Western Conference? Is this the last we’ve seen of that other team in Texas? Will Portland blaze a new path in this year’s playoffs? Will #24 take last year’s Western Conference champions over the hump and find a fourth ring on his finger?
Questions are abound as TPFSports gives you our first round Western Conference playoff preview in the “The Race for 16” series.
Los Angeles Lakers (1) vs. Utah Jazz (8)
Jazz: The Jazz have been struggling lately and have an embarrassingly poor road record, so chances for a shocking upset seem rather low. What must the Jazz do? Devise a good gameplan to contain Kobe Bryant. Also, Carlos Boozer and Paul Millsap must dominate the paint with their physicality and neutralize Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. Mehmet Okur’s ability to shoot from the outside and draw Gasol away from the basket will help.
Lakers: If Gasol and Bynum can have their way inside, they’ll cruise along to the second round. Even if that doesn’t happen, Kobe Bryant will easily be the best player on the court and will be the difference in close games. Homecourt advantage is huge mainly because the Jazz are so bad on the road.
X-Factor: Deron Williams
The Lakers’ point guard position has quietly become a soft spot. Derek Fisher appears to be wearing down and his shooting has fallen off in recent weeks. Jordan Farmar has found himself buried on the bench behind the newly-acquired Shannon Brown. None of these guys should be able to contain Williams. If Williams abuses the Lakers’ guards in one-on-one situations, keeps his teammates involved (and makes Kobe Bryant pay whenever he leaves his man), and as a whole takes his game to another level, he can potentially make it a long, difficult series for the Lakers.
Prediction: Lakers in 5
Denver Nuggets (2) vs. New Orleans Hornets (7)
This isn’t a traditional matchup between second and seventh seeds. The Hornets’ record has suffered from injuries to Tyson Chandler and Peja Stojakovic, while the Nuggets’ superior seeding is largely due to the injury problems of some traditionally powerful western teams (Spurs, Hornets, Rockets).
Nuggets: Chauncey Billups has admirably brought stability to a dysfunctional unit filled with its share of knuckleheads (including Coach George Karl). Will it be enough for the Nuggets to finally make it out of the first round? The Nuggets have a good chance because of their offensive firepower and muscle in the paint. The Hornets, meanwhile, go through many long dry stretches offensively, and are not a great rebounding team. Chandler and Stojakovic still do not appear to be 100%. If the Nuggets can force Chris Paul to score boatloads of point himself and keep the Hornets’ role players from finding a rhythm, they will be on their way to the second round.
Hornets: Chris Paul should have a huge series. He is too quick for Billups and will be the best player on the court. James Posey is an excellent defender who could make life difficult for Carmelo Anthony. Anthony has not been a particularly good playoff performer so far in his career and it will be interesting to see how effective he is. David West is very tough to guard, and if Chandler and Stojakovic can come close to matching their production from last year, the Hornets will prove to be much better than their seed indicates.
X-Factor: Tyson Chandler
He must give the Hornets and inside presence, control the boards, and defend the rim. It is up to him to shore up what have been team weaknesses all year long.
Prediction: Hornets in 6
San Antonio Spurs (3) vs. Dallas Mavericks (6)
Spurs: The Spurs are coming into the playoffs in worse shape than they have since 2000 when Tim Duncan was out with an injury. This year, Manu Ginobili’s absence appears to be a fatal blow to their title hopes, and Tim Duncan has struggled greatly at times since his knees began troubling him in February. Still, they have won their last four games and there appears to have been a rallying effect caused by sidelining of Ginobili. Duncan is starting to look better.
With all the setbacks they’ve endured this year, expect the Spurs to be playing with chips on their shoulders. They’ll be eager to see what they can do and how far they can go now that the postseason has finally arrived.
Mavs: The Mavericks have been playing some of their best basketball of the season in recent weeks, and have overcome a slow start. Dirk Nowitzki has quietly had a fine year and Jason Terry should win Sixth Man of the Year.
Dallas has a solid chance of winning the series. Nowitzki must play well, Jason Kidd must knock down his jumpers, and Josh Howard must show up. However, they simply have no answer for Tony Parker. One of the reasons the Mavs upset the Spurs in 2006 was Devin Harris’ ability to stay with Parker. In 2009, the Mavs have no such player and Parker is playing the best basketball of his career. The Mavs also lack the personnel to contain Duncan in the low post. Drew Gooden and Roger Mason can score enough to partially compensate for Ginobili’s absence.
X-Factor: Tim Duncan
How well will his health and body hold up in a grueling postseason? If he can play close to his normal level and dominate inside, the Spurs should be able to advance. If he looks like a slow-footed old man struggling to find any rhythm, San Antonio will suffer an uncharacteristically early exit.
Prediction: Spurs in 5
Portland Trail Blazers (4) vs. Houston Rockets (5)
Blazers: Portland has become a hot pick to come-of-age during these playoffs and can possibly give the Lakers a headache at some point. They have a young, deep team loaded with talent and it will be interesting to see how far they can go in their first playoff trip. The Rockets have overcome the absence of Tracy McGrady to scrap together a fine record. They play good, hardnosed defense and will be a difficult out for anyone.
The Trail Blazers enjoy a balanced, deep roster, and have plenty of big men they can throw at Yao to wear him down. They enjoy an excellent home record (though their road record is mediocre). LaMarcus Aldridge should be able to have his way against Luis Scola. Brandon Roy is developing into a superstar and his leadership and poise will be crucial.
Rockets: The Rockets can win if their defense takes charge and Yao Ming can carry the load on offense. Outside of Yao, the Rockets are somewhat erratic offensively, and Ron Artest must not bury his team with a plethora of poor shots. In Artest and Shane Battier, the Rockets have two excellent perimeter defenders who can harass Brandon Roy. Though the Rockets don’t have a huge collection of prime-time playoff performers, they still have more experience than the young Blazers, and it may be enough to provide the difference in a game or two. Overall, the Rockets miss McGrady’s playmaking but they may still be able to eek out a gritty win.
X-Factor: Portland’s homecourt advantage.
In a close series between two tough teams, it could prove to be the difference.
Prediction: Blazers in 7
The Eastern Conference Preview
