The Cleveland Cavaliers
Dave: It's been a while since last time. And as I suggested, the Cavs aren't as bad as their roster would have one believe.
Nick: Alright, I'll concede that you were more on point with your analysis of their roster, if you admit that I was right about Iverson having a shot to work out in Detroit.
Dave: Fair enough.
Nick: In fact, the last conversation and our feelings about those two teams have proved quite prophetic. LeBron's Cavaliers, as you expected have constructed a team around him much like the team that was once created around Iverson. They defend, rebound, and hit the supplemental baskets. I really expected that they'd need another player via a trade to make them favorites to make it to the finals, but at this point, it’s not even a stretch to say that they're the best team in the East. Meanwhile, on the otherside... the real Iverson (after initial bumps) has found a way to work pretty seamlessly with his new team. And, he's played his best ball along side Stuckey, who has quickly proved his worth.
Dave: The Cavs are a deep team, as deep as the Lakers. And while they don't appear to be terribly talented, it's because most people equate talent with scoring ability. The Cavs do not have a slew of great one-on-one scorers, but their guys play tough defense and rebound well. That's what championship teams do. When you've got a team that plays (as Larry Brown would put it) "the right way" built around the most sublimely talented player in the league, they are going to be title contenders
Iverson has found a way to fit in well with the Pistons, I must admit. However, I still don't see the Pistons contending for a title this year. And isn't winning the championship what it's all about? I think Joe D. just realized the team was past its prime anyway and is trying to keep them interesting while waiting for the Summer of 2010.
Nick: Well, that IS exactly what I suggested. But since the Cavs are the contenders, lets focus on them. Who else is in their class?
Dave: The Lakers, who beat them on Monday. The Celtics, in spite of their struggles. And the Spurs should never be counted out. I would be very surprised if anyone besides those four teams hoists the Larry O'Brien trophy in June. New Orleans is my dark horse, if I must have one.
Nick: I think that should be everyone's basic list, with my sleeper being from the East. I think that Atlanta could quietly go into the playoffs as a four or five seed, and end up knocking off a top team. The Celtics are the team most likely to fall victim to their athleticism, and Joe Johnson's ownership of Paul Pierce.
Dave: I think the Hawks can knock out ONE top team, but not enough top teams to win the championship. (Just like the Warriors knocked out Dallas two years ago, but it was apparent they wouldn't be able to pull that trick several times.)
Nick: That's exactly what I mean, and I really think the most likely candidate is the Celtics. I think this is the first of two major swoons we'll see this season. The other one will be about four or five weeks after the All-Star break.
Dave: You make a good point. As we saw last year the Hawks match up well with the Celtics.
How the West will be won & the Spurs staying power….
Dave: I think a lot is going to depend on seeding. I think the Spurs really suffered last year from having a very tough road to the Finals. They were so worn out after surviving New Orleans and Phoenix that they didn't have much left for the Lakers. I think if the Lakers and Spurs had their opponents from the first two rounds last year the Conference Finals may have played out differently.
Nick: San Antonio was spent. They looked gassed and sad against the Lakers. This season they're still waiting to take off and get their players together consistently... whereas Los Angeles has shot out of the gates. Kobe is playing great, but Pau has been the one that has really delivered on a consistent basis. He finally looks comfortable in this offense, and (probably more importantly) next to Kobe Bryant.
At this point, honestly... the team that plays LA the toughest - in my opinion - is a young, dangerous Portland team. Roy gets after Kobe, and Oden is coming along slowly but surely. They have the shooters, a pair of great perimeter defenders in Brandon Roy and Blake, athletic wings to run with guys that usually get easy buckets (Outlaw v. Ariza) a solid enforcer (read: 6 fouls) in Pryz, Oden can get a few blocks, and Aldridge matches up well with Pau.
They're too green to contend, but not to scare.
Dave: You may be right. Portland is very talented and always plays the Lakers tough. They could be a nightmare early round matchup for the Lakers.
I think the Spurs have upgraded from where they were in the Conference Finals. Ginobili seems headed for a full recovery. Roger Mason and George Hill have added much needed depth, youth, and energy to the backcourt. Tony Parker is better than ever, and Duncan is still Duncan.
If the Spurs are healthy and energetic enough, they can beat anyone in a seven-game series. And don't forget that this is an odd year. They are due.
Nick: Hill and Mason are good for their backcourt, sure. But what about the frontcourt? Tim Duncan showed up in the best shape of his life and nobody is talking about it! You know what you're getting out of him (and this year it's even more than you'd expect) but that's where it ends for me. Who is going to give this man the rest he's going to need? They need to make a move for a Bob Horry kind of guy, somebody that will play good positional defense, and can hit a shot here and there. They don't need a prolific player, a fringe star, or even the type that should usually start - just somebody that could help him out.
This is why I still think that the Lakers match up well with them, they have front court size that might be able to tire Duncan out, and the depth at guard positions (especially 2/3) to stay fresh against Parker and Manu.
Dave: I think you hit the nail on the head. A Robert Horry type is exactly what the Spurs need. It would put them over the top and make them the favorites, in my opinion. Lack of athleticism up front is the Spurs' Achilles Heal. I still think they can squeak by as they are, but they will need to catch a few breaks, and their Big 3 will have to be superb.
Is there anyone the Spurs could be targeting before the trade deadline that'll fill the Horry void? They picked up Kurt Thomas last year and I could see them making a comparable move this year.
Nick: Well it depends on what they're looking for. Jermaine O'Neal's name is being tossed around in a few rumors (O'Neal for Marion is the most recent), but salaries are so tough to match up. Forgetting salary, I'd say take a look at Marcus Camby, but thinking more feasibly.. what about somebody like Chris Wilcox?
Dave: The Spurs don't have lots of big contracts to dump, and they don't want to take on a long contract, so that rules some people out. Camby is a very intriguing possibility though. Wilcox and Joe Smith are some other guys who might make sense.
They might just decide to go with what they have and play a small-ball lineup somewhat regularly. It might not matter against the Lakers, since Bynum usually sits during key late game moments.
Nick: Hey, I'm just throwing it out there... but Darko could be had, and he is eminently available.
Dave: I would not be terribly surprised to see Darko on the Spurs. They have the type of culture where they can effectively deal with a knucklehead (they got a lot out of Stephen Jackson for instance).
Nick: How bad does it hurt that Tiago Splitter just can't get bought out?
Dave: The Splitter situation is just the latest in a series of front-office blunders (Luis Scola also comes to mind). I don't think the Spurs did a good job of replenishing their bench with young talent during the last few years. This is in contrast to what they did in the early part of the decade when Manu and Tony were just developing.
Nick: It's always the same question, "Will they be tired in the end? And, how tired will they be?" One of the teams we might not have to wait on, (as far as seeing a tired version) is the Boston Celtics.
Speaking about the Celtics….
Nick: How are they going to limit minutes, and how concerned should they be?
Dave: I don't think they should be terribly concerned. I don't think they were ever as good (and deep and fresh) as their 27-2 record indicated. But they are a solid 60-win championship contender. If you look at the stats, the Celtics have been pretty consistent defensively both during their fast start and their recent slump. It's their offense which has been lacking. Pierce and Garnett are both playing worse at the offensive end than they did last year. A lot of people are blaming the bench, and it's true that they miss James Posey and they aren't as deep as they'd like to be. But when you have three superstars, I don't think it's asking too much for them to step up and start generating enough points to end their offensive woes.
Nick: I think that people underestimate what it takes to play high-caliber NBA defense, game-in and game-out. I'm not surprised at all that the offense has struggled. Nobody says it (mainly because so few watched) but in Minnesota Garnett had bouts of ineffectiveness offensively from carrying the load all season, especially on the defensive side where he was guarding centers, and expected to pick up all of the weakside blocks. I never wondered why he looked small at the ends of some games, he ran around like a madman for 40 minutes every game, how could that NOT drag on him. Unfortunately, I'm not sure that Doc is capable of utilizing his bench in a way to keep those guys fresh enough to score all the points, and play such great defense. Even though to be fair, guys like Tony Allen and Kendrick Perkins make are often called on for their defensive effort as well.
Nick: Here's what I want to know, aside from the favorites in the league this year, much of which we expected... Who (players or teams) have surprised you this season?
Be it for positive or negative reasons.
Dave: Well, I was surprised by the Celtics' fast start. I didn't quite expect a Miami Heat level fall-off, but I expected them to go somewhat in that direction. Like they Heat, they were a veteran team filled with guys chasing that elusive title, and I sensed that last year everyone was really getting up and giving it their all and their tanks would be empty at the end. I guess we are starting to see some of the fatigue set in now, but I'm still surprised overall.
I'm also very surprised by how quick owners and GMs have been to fire coaches this year.
It’s also surprising how good Paul Millsap is.
Nick: I've found it amazing, that in a season where we correctly identified all of the favorites and contenders this summer, we're still seeing a large amount of surprises within teams and rosters...
Kevin, Derrick, Greg and them……
Nick: I'm surprised by how Kevin Durant seems to have flipped a switch this season and made himself 10X as effective as last season, the great play of the Hawks despite the stunted growth of Al Horford, The Shaqtus Renaissance, and the fact that still, after two years of this... nobody watches Kevin Martin.
Dave: The switch to small forward has helped Durant tremendously. It always seemed like a stupid idea to try to turn him into a shooting guard. Have you noticed how Durant’s rebounding numbers have shot up?
Nick: Also, you can't talk about surprises without mentioning how great rookies have played this season. Many of them have stepped into leading roles for their franchises and thrived. Derrick Rose is almost impossible to guard, Russell Westbrook has one of the best first steps in basketball and is an elite defender now (not in-the-making), OJ Mayo has taken over that Memphis team... and Rudy Gay better get in line or pack his bags! Also, though in my opinion he's not a true rookie, Rudy Fernandez has filled a very important role in Portland, and we're just starting to see flashes of the old (no pun) Greg Oden. DJ Augustin has essentially made Felton expendable, and guys like Jason Thompson are putting in high quality minutes in anonymity.
